After two years of post-pandemic correction, the U.S. Class 8 market entered 2026 with normalized inventory, depressed used prices, and the most competitive financing environment since 2019. This report breaks down pricing trends, residual value curves by make and model, the relationship between credit tier and APR, and what carriers should expect from fleet expansion economics through year-end.
Executive Summary
The Class 8 truck market in 2026 reflects a tale of two cycles. New equipment pricing has stabilized at $155k–$185k for fleet-spec sleepers, supported by EPA 2027 pre-buy demand. Used pricing has fallen 18% year-over-year, creating the most attractive entry point for first-time owner-operators in five years.
On the financing side, APRs for borrowers with 700+ FICO have compressed to 7.5%–9.0%, driven by competition among captive and independent lenders. Subprime credit (sub-650) remains expensive but accessible, with average APRs of 13%–18%.
Pricing Trends by Make & Model
Average transaction prices for the four highest-volume Class 8 sleepers diverged significantly in 2024–2025. Volvo VNL and Kenworth T680 retained a $10k–$15k premium over Freightliner Cascadia, reflecting fleet-buyer preference for residuals.
- Freightliner Cascadia
- Volvo VNL 760
- Kenworth T680
- Peterbilt 579
- Cascadia (3-yr-old)
- VNL (3-yr-old)
- T680 (3-yr-old)
Depreciation Curves
Heavy-duty tractors lose roughly 16–18% of value per year in years 1–4, then flatten. Volvo VNL and Kenworth T680 retain 4–6% more residual than Cascadia at the 5-year mark, but Cascadia's lower entry price often produces better total cost of ownership.
- Cascadia
- VNL
- T680
Financing Rates by Credit Tier
Brobas Capital tracked APR offers across 14 equipment lenders for the four quarters of 2024 and Q1 2026. The single largest determinant of pricing remained borrower FICO, with secondary effects from time-in-business and DSCR.
- 700+ FICO
- 650–699 FICO
- <650 FICO
Fleet Expansion Economics
Single-truck operators contemplating a second tractor face a different math problem than multi-unit fleets. Marginal economics improve sharply at units 3–5, where dispatch and insurance overhead amortize across more revenue.
Methodology & Sources
New and used transaction pricing reflects a blended average of J.D. Power Commercial Truck Guide auction data, dealer asking prices weighted by Truck Paper inventory volume, and Brobas Capital settlement records (n=1,840). Financing rate data reflects 4,200+ APR offers from 14 lenders across 2024–Q1 2026.
- J.D. Power Commercial Truck Guide — auction & wholesale pricing
- ATRI Operational Costs of Trucking 2024 — per-mile cost benchmarks
- DAT Trendlines — spot-market rate per mile
- ACT Research — Class 8 build & order data
- Brobas Capital underwriting database (2024–2025)
Brobas Capital Partners Research. (2026). 2026 Commercial Truck Market Report. Report BCP-2026-001. Retrieved from https://brobascap.com/publications/2026-commercial-truck-market-report