Commercial trucks are the largest balance-sheet asset most owner-operators ever own. This report quantifies how that asset loses value over time by equipment type and brand, isolates the per-mile depreciation effect, and identifies the data-optimal window for sale.
Depreciation by Equipment Type
Sleeper tractors, day cabs, and reefer trailers depreciate at meaningfully different rates. Reefer trailers — burdened by refrigeration unit obsolescence — depreciate fastest. Day cabs depreciate slowest, supported by stable regional/drayage demand.
- Class 8 sleeper
- Class 8 day cab
- Reefer trailer
- Dry van trailer
Mileage Impact on Residual
Beyond the time-based depreciation curve, mileage is the second factor in residual value. Each 100,000 miles of accumulated odometer reduces residual value by approximately $6,200 for a Class 8 sleeper, with the steepest declines between 400k and 700k miles.
- Wholesale value
Best Time to Buy & Sell
Combining the time-, mileage-, and warranty-expiration factors, the optimal sell point for a fleet-spec sleeper is month 42–48, before the major warranty expiration cliff and before the residual curve flattens into the long-tail used market.
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Month 0–6: Highest depreciation cliffNew truck loses ~15% in first six months. Worst window to sell.Avoid selling
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Month 12–24: Lease return zoneOff-lease 1–2 yr units flood market each spring; pricing dips 4–6%.Watch market
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Month 24–36: First sweet spot to BUY usedBulk warranty still in force, ~70% of MSRP value. Best buy window.BUY here
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Month 42–48: Optimal SELL windowPre–major engine warranty cliff, residual still 45–50% of MSRP.SELL here
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Month 60+: Long-tail usedBelow 35% residual, mostly cash buyers, slow turn.Hold or trade
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Month 84+: Export / parts valueEastern European and Latin American export demand sets a floor.Floor pricing
Brobas Capital Partners Research. (2026). Equipment Depreciation Analysis. Report BCP-2026-004. Retrieved from https://brobascap.com/publications/equipment-depreciation-analysis