Commercial trucks are the largest balance-sheet asset most owner-operators ever own. This report quantifies how that asset loses value over time by equipment type and brand, isolates the per-mile depreciation effect, and identifies the data-optimal window for sale.
Depreciation by Equipment Type
Sleeper tractors, day cabs, and reefer trailers depreciate at meaningfully different rates. Reefer trailers, burdened by refrigeration unit obsolescence, depreciate fastest. Day cabs depreciate slowest, supported by stable regional/drayage demand.
- Class 8 sleeper
- Class 8 day cab
- Reefer trailer
- Dry van trailer
Mileage Impact on Residual
Beyond the time-based depreciation curve, mileage is the second factor in residual value. Each 100,000 miles of accumulated odometer reduces residual value by approximately $6,200 for a Class 8 sleeper, with the steepest declines between 400k and 700k miles.
- Wholesale value
Best Time to Buy & Sell
Combining the time-, mileage-, and warranty-expiration factors, the optimal sell point for a fleet-spec sleeper is month 42-48, before the major warranty expiration cliff and before the residual curve flattens into the long-tail used market.
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Month 0-6: Highest depreciation cliffNew truck loses ~15% in first six months. Worst window to sell.Avoid selling
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Month 12-24: Lease return zoneOff-lease 1-2 yr units flood market each spring; pricing dips 4-6%.Watch market
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Month 24-36: First sweet spot to BUY usedBulk warranty still in force, ~70% of MSRP value. Best buy window.BUY here
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Month 42-48: Optimal SELL windowPre-major engine warranty cliff, residual still 45-50% of MSRP.SELL here
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Month 60+: Long-tail usedBelow 35% residual, mostly cash buyers, slow turn.Hold or trade
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Month 84+: Export / parts valueEastern European and Latin American export demand sets a floor.Floor pricing
Brobas Capital Partners Research. (2026). Equipment Depreciation Analysis. Report BCP-2026-004. Retrieved from https://brobascap.com/publications/equipment-depreciation-analysis